Let's talk about the subsidy for new energy vehicles: Who is it to be based on?

The official website of the Ministry of Finance hoisted the "Notice on the Special Inspection of Local Budget and Open Air and Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles", and clearly listed five companies as typical deception cases: Suzhou Jim West, Suzhou Jinlong, Shenzhen Wuzhoulong, Chery Wanda Guizhou Bus and Henan Shaolin Bus, involving new energy subsidies amounted to 1.01 billion yuan. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stopped the implementation of the central financial subsidies for the above five enterprises, and canceled the vehicle production qualification for Jim West. The other four companies removed the problem vehicles from the promotion catalogue and recovered the subsidy funds.

According to the report, the Ministry of Finance and other ministries have carried out special inspections on 90 major new energy vehicle manufacturers, involving a total of 401,000 new energy vehicles that have been and have been declared to be funded by the central government in 2013-2015. From 2009 to the end of 2015, the central government has allocated a total of 33.435 billion yuan of subsidies for new energy vehicles. However, a considerable part of these funds have been a€?scammeda€? by illegal and illegal enterprises.

What is the basis for subsidizing new energy vehicles?

China's passenger car sales in 2015 reached 21 million. What is most needed in the market economy is integrity. However, in the process of building China's socialist market economic system, different forms of "fraud" at different times have brought harm to the development of the economy and society. It is not uncommon for some areas to lack the necessary institutional constraints, order and even anomie, but we must not use the "all is a reasonable price" to smother.

The goal of reforming the socialist market economic system has long been established. It is particularly worth mentioning that the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity has become an important goal for comprehensively deepening reforms. Among this goal, finance has also been given its due position, that is, a€?finance is the foundation and important pillar of state governancea€?. The fundamental changes in Chinese society need to deal with the relationship between the market, society and the government. The reasonable boundary between the market and the government is a prerequisite for the market to play a decisive role in resource allocation. The new energy vehicle market is also a market. Fundamentally, the decisive role of the market also needs to be fully utilized. The source of the problem of new energy vehicles is that the role of the market has not been truly respected.

Of course, the decisive role of the market we are talking about in resource allocation is not that the market replaces the government, but that the market and the government have the sovereignty. The decisive role of the market is in line with the complementary role of the government. It is difficult to say when it is easy to do. Government subsidies for new energy vehicles have always been a very controversial issue. How much to make up, how to make up, how to manage subsidies, etc., are also difficult problems.

Why should we subsidize new energy vehicles? The reasons that can be put out are as follows: New energy vehicles are a rare area for China's auto industry to achieve cornering overtaking. As long as subsidies are provided, the Chinese auto industry can achieve leapfrog development here. It is not unreasonable to say this. New energy vehicles are difficult to achieve large-scale production at the beginning, and the cost is high. With subsidies, the cost disadvantages of new energy auto companies can be largely compensated. The development conditions for new energy vehicles will therefore be greatly improved. As long as there is sufficient subsidy, the development of new energy vehicles will certainly be smoother.

However, with subsidies, will new energy vehicles achieve their established development goals? The key to the development of new energy vehicles lies in technology. Will there be technology if you have money? this is the key of the problem. Indeed, there are many technologies in reality that can be bought for money. However, advanced technology is not necessarily available. New energy vehicles are also in their infancy in the international arena. Major auto companies are also working hard to develop new technologies. Under such conditions, the development direction of new energy vehicles is a problem. How can there be advanced technologies for market sales? With money, new energy auto companies can increase their own R&D investment. However, the increase in R&D investment does not mean that R&D will succeed. The choice of the direction of new energy vehicles is inherently controversial. Without certainty, the target of R&D investment cannot be too strong. In such a stage of development, new energy vehicle technology may need more market trial and error, allowing the market to choose the right technology.

The development of new energy vehicles is proposed in the context of energy conservation and emission reduction. This is an advantage that new energy vehicles may have over traditional vehicles. How big is the advantage, depends on technology. The battery is powered by electricity. Since China's electricity is mainly thermal power, coal is ultimately powered by cars. However, the coal power generation site may not be the place where the car is used, and the pollution is transferred from the place where the car is used to the location of the power plant. Whether the pollution is reduced or not depends on the amount of electricity consumed. It is necessary to convert the power consumption of new energy vehicles into coal consumption. After that, compare this with the gasoline used in traditional cars. Traditional car gasoline has different grades, and high-grade gasoline use requirements will also improve the energy-saving efficiency of traditional cars. Battery production and scrapping of new energy vehicles also consumes resources, which also brings certain pollution. This is a comparison when you need to pay attention.

Plug-in hybrid vehicles in the condition that pure electric new energy vehicle technology is not advanced enough and charging is not particularly convenient, hybrid power contributes to the development of new energy vehicles, but the problem is that hybrid vehicles can also be regarded as new energy sources. Car? If the charging is inconvenient, it will not be charged. It is not news to use the "new energy car" as a traditional car. Also, how much energy use is improved when fuel is charged and fuel is directly supplied to the vehicle? The improvement of solar energy utilization technology may be an important direction for the development of new energy vehicles. Solar energy is abundant and sufficient for human use, but the current use of technology is relatively low, hindering the development of solar vehicles . The use of new materials such as graphene has many unknowns, which means that there are many new developments. Although the space is not known, the existence of uncertainty just gives the market an opportunity.

New energy vehicle subsidy effect needs to be evaluated

Why is there a problem with the current subsidies for new energy vehicles? The government has more subsidies on new energy vehicles. Including central and local financial subsidies, consumers can even get a subsidy of 120,000 yuan when they buy a new energy vehicle. The subsidy is amazing, which is the fundamental driving force for deception. Of course, deception is only an individual phenomenon, or just a small part of the total subsidy. The published data seems to support this judgment as well. If the analysis of the problem is only here, then we may not be able to fundamentally find a solution to the problem.

Although the number of fraudulent companies announced this time is small, there are only a few, but the weight of the companies involved in the industry should not be underestimated. These enterprises are not small businesses. In a sense, we can even say that they are responsible for the development of China's new energy vehicles and determine whether China's new energy vehicles can occupy a place in the world automotive industry. Under normal circumstances, these enterprises should be legally operated. Why should they do fraudulent subsidies? From a business perspective, this is a manifestation of a market economy that is still not mature enough. In a mature market economy, large enterprises, especially those with important positions in the industry, should at least operate with integrity. Deception is definitely something.

What is worthy of our questioning is, why is there no effective way to solve the problem of fraud? Large enterprises may take risks, or they may explain that the threshold for subsidy acquisition is low, companies can do it without much effort, and profitable; or it can be explained that even if it is a large enterprise, if there is not enough subsidies, new energy vehicles Business is also difficult to operate.

The government spends money to talk about income. When you use public resources, you have to make things clear. In the end, what the society needs is an evaluation report on the effect of financial subsidies for new energy vehicles. The evaluation report should indicate the total cost of the subsidy, the direction of the subsidy, and the effect. This is indispensable for the modernization of state governance. Every financial payment should be used in the cutting edge, and should get the benefits it deserves. To calculate the general ledger, we need to understand to what extent the subsidies for new energy vehicles have promoted the development of China's new energy vehicle industry. This judgment is not easy to achieve. Only vertical comparison is not enough. We also need to compare horizontally. Compared with the world's counterparts, China's new energy auto industry has declined or has risen. If it rises, what kind of position does it rise to? If it falls, what is the extent of the decline? Even with indicator data, the controversy will continue. Perhaps we can prove it by other indicators.

The popularity of new energy vehicles is clearly a good indicator. In 2015, new energy vehicles sold 330,000 vehicles, which is almost negligible in the entire automotive market. If we consider that some of the 330,000 vehicles are still "selling" for "cheat", the actual sales volume is even smaller. The price of new energy vehicles is not low, but the running performance is difficult to match the traditional cars of the same price class. Consumers' personal choices are not mixed with many other factors, which is more conducive to judgment. Beijing cars need to be shaken on the cards, but the number of new energy vehicles is shaken separately, and the difficulty is much smaller than that of traditional cars. In this way, a small number of people waiting for a car may choose a new energy car. The reason they choose is that it is easy to get the license plate, rather than the performance of the new energy car is attractive enough. Shanghai car not only has to go through auctions, but also has to shake the number. The difficulty of obtaining licenses and the cost of payment are not small. New energy vehicles and licenses are bundled for sale, which is very convenient for those who need to use cars, so they may also choose new energy vehicles. But that's it, new energy vehicles are still not popular. Elsewhere in the country, no new energy vehicles are flooding the market.

The sales of new energy vehicles have achieved certain results in the past years. However, we need to think about how many of these achievements are the result of forcibly promoting new energy vehicles in urban taxis. In order to attract investment, some cities encourage new energy auto companies to invest in the local area, and stipulate that a certain proportion of urban taxis need to use new energy vehicles. The implementation of the "win-win" strategy only shows that the new energy vehicles have greater negotiating power in investment, and does not mean that the new energy vehicle technology is sufficiently advanced. There are also regulations for supporting new energy vehicles in government procurement. Such asymmetric competition support is actually equivalent to additional subsidies for new energy vehicles.

Financial support for new energy vehicles should be biased towards scientific research

The society's expectation for new energy vehicles is the expectation of new energy vehicles at a reasonable price, the expectation of energy saving and emission reduction, and the expectation of advanced technology development. These expectations are reasonable. However, structural reforms on the supply side have not yet been put in place, and new energy auto companies are not able to fully meet the needs of consumers. This is the key to the problem. Even if you want to subsidize new energy vehicles, you should consider the link of subsidies, consider the target of subsidies, and consider the effect of subsidies.

The financial subsidies for new energy vehicles, a€?rain and dewa€?, may be poor subsidies because they cannot really encourage the new energy vehicle industry and cannot effectively stimulate the progress of new energy vehicle technology. If new energy vehicle subsidies are needed, it may be more effective to subsidize advanced technology than to subsidize the sale of each new energy vehicle. Such subsidies are somewhat subsidized and can guarantee the use of limited financial resources for companies that contribute to the technological advancement of new energy vehicles. However, if a new energy auto company has advanced technology in the industry, it has a competitive advantage in this industry. In fact, it can operate better than other companies without any subsidies.

Financial subsidies may only interfere with the normal competition in this market and distort market behavior. Moreover, such subsidies may stifle the development of certain types of technology. The growth of emerging technologies is in the bud, and may not be competitive, but after a period of development, it may show the power of new technologies. There may be differences in the influence of different technologies in different periods. Today's leading technologies may fall behind tomorrow. This is determined by the regularity of technological development. To this end, different types of technical routes should be left behind, because no one can determine the true technical route of the future because of future uncertainties. Leaving enough room for market growth may be more important than other practices. The emergence of fraudulent problems is actually a good time to reflect on the subsidy policy.

Based on the status quo, even if financial subsidies must be used to promote the development of the new energy auto industry, the focus of subsidies may need to change. The financial subsidies in these years have not allowed the Chinese auto industry to seize the opportunity to overtake the corners, as the experts in the new energy auto industry have said. Conversely, inefficient subsidies actually mean a reduction in the funds that would otherwise be used for public goods and public services in other areas, and the shortcomings of certain public goods and public services. If the existing subsidies are not invested in the terminal, but are directed to technology research and development, will it be better? Personal car consumption is purely a private matter, and a large amount of financial funds to subsidize personal consumption behavior is not in line with the trend of the market economy. The exposure of the scam problem also gives the opportunity to think about the way to completely change the subsidy. Subsidies have been withdrawn, but there should be no such direct subsidies for consumption in the future. Subsidies are designed to encourage research and development and encourage the development of new energy vehicle technologies rather than other specific consumption targets.

The current status of the development of new energy vehicles can be considered to some extent, and technologies that should have been market-oriented after laboratory improvement have entered the market ahead of time. The products supported by such technology can not meet the travel needs of consumers. Financial subsidies can be withdrawn, but technological innovations can be used to encourage technological innovation in new energy vehicles. The same money, the effect of spending on scientific research, may be more effective than directly subsidizing consumption. The implementation of the innovation-driven development strategy fundamentally depends on technological innovation. More investment in technological innovation, and pay attention to the effectiveness of investment, may be to grasp the development of the new energy automotive industry.

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